A simulation and one minute survey.

Follow these three steps:

  1. Read the instructions “The Mission”  in the next tab (see above)
  2. Complete the one-minute survey and enter your estimates
  3. Save your estimates (copy/paste, print) if you want to keep them.
  4. At the end of the survey you will find a link to a downloadable PDF with further information, answers, and some insights.

Shortly we will publish the free complete report and an online simulation game.

Sign up for the newsletter to receive

  • invitations to the next simulation games
  • the detailed research report.

Enjoy & Share with others!

Your Charter:

You are in charge of developing the customer base of a business through a viral marketing campaign. Customers purchase through word of mouth and join the installed base.

To simplify things:

  • Your company is the only competitor in that market.
  • The timeframe is 2 years.
  • The total market size is stable, including potential customers and customers in your customer base: No customers are leaving.

Your Objective:

To estimate the customer base for different times for the upcoming 2 years.

To estimate the time when sales will reach a maximum and what the sales volume is in that month.

Important Assumptions:

  • Current Market size: 25 million potential customers
  • Initial customer base: 50.000 customers at the beginning.
  • Contacts per month: 10 customers. (That means each customer has contact to another 10 potential customers.)
  • Purchase Probability: 0.05 (5%, or: 5 out of 100 contacts will purchase)

How to proceed:

  1. Please enter your estimates and a bit information about your role and involvement with viral marketing. The information will be used for analysis purposes only.
  2. Please indicate if you would like to join the research panel and if you are interested in upcoming survey, reports, and simulations.
  3. After completing the survey
    • you will see some benchmark information (“How do my estimates compare?”)
    • you will be guided to a short presentation of the results. There you will also see links to more information, other simulations and to obtain a complete research report.

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Results benchmark


Estimate: +/- 10%

Wow! Great Job! You really know your stuff!

Since you are already a Pro you may want to consider

  • Sharing your expertise with others
  • Take the next level and try out some of our simulations
  • Participate in the next one-minute-survey with increasing complexity

Update your skill

Estimate: +/- 30%

You have an opportunity to advance your skill to assess and plan for dynamic growth. With a better understanding and judgement how the dynamic system behaves you can improve the performance of your campaigns and business.

Some things to consider

  • Explore our material for developing systemic skills, including simulations, presentations, seminars.
  • Host a training event for you and your team mates. Please use our contact form to inquire about offerings.
  • Subscribe to our mailing list for upcoming talks and online classes.

At Risk!

Estimate: +/- >50%

Your estimates are way off. This represents a significant risk to your projects and campaigns.

In order to get up to speed here are some things to consider:

  • Take a look at the presentation or video for this exercise to understand the dynamics and drivers of the changes.
  • Sign up to one of our workshop seminars. Bring your topics to the session.
  • Subscribe to our mailing list for upcoming sessions, material and simulation.
  • Let your colleagues take the survey. If everyone shares the same challenges, let’s host a workshop and training session for your team or company.
  • Our multi player simulations are fun to play in teams, with facilitation and expert advisory for your situation.

Subscribe to WITTIGONIA Insights mailing list for:

  • Complete research report
  • Joining to research panel
  • Information about upcoming research
  • Announcements about availabe online simulation tools

WITTIGONIA Insights mailing list

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Please indicate your preferences
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View previous campaigns.